Thai Tourism: 50 Million Visitors by 2028 If Peace Prevails

Thailand’s tourism comeback forged ahead in the first half of 2024 with 17.5 million arrivals, up 35% over 12.9 million in the first half 2023. Thai tourism is on track to regain the 2019 level of 40 million this year and hit 50 million by 2028, only IF global, regional and local risks and threats are alleviated/mitigated.

Thailand is becoming a true Alliance of Civilizations destination. Its broad-based diplomacy and neutral foreign policy is providing the bedrock support for the IGNITE Tourism Thailand project and the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s multi-pronged marketing strategies. Effective July 15, the expanded visa-free or visa-on-arrival access for 119 countries, the most sweeping visa liberalization move in Thai tourism history, will open up several new markets and keep the numbers flowing well into the future.

Thailand now has a perfect balance of populous, short-haul markets which are bouncing back rapidly, traditional long-haul markets which are declining in market share but still doing well in terms of numbers, and high-potential future markets in the Islamic world, Africa and Latin America. Its efforts to join the OECD, promote ties with the Islamic world and get reciprocal visa-free access to the Schengen countries will also boost the country’s international standing and two-way tourism.

On the supply side, it has a perfect combination of products and services to meet just about every kind of demand, (except winter tourism), catering to people across all incomes, gender and age groups.

The only factors which could disrupt this positive scenario are another local upheaval within Thailand itself or a global collapse such as a pandemic, economic meltdown or war. Individual disturbances or disruptions in isolated countries are unlikely to result in anything more than a blip.

Here is an in-depth analysis of the January-June visitor arrivals:

The Ministry of Tourism and Sports has also expanded the list of countries on the visitor arrivals statistical report. These include Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia, Latvia, Morocco, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Uruguay. Presently, all are low-volume source-markets but hold considerable future promise, especially as all can now get visa-free or visa-on-arrival access. Including them on the statistical report card allows them to attract future marketing activities.

CONCLUSION

Overall, tourism will remain a star economic performer. However, I foresee the need for a major structural overhaul of the entire industry in view of the unprecedented changes under way in demographics, technologies, geopolitics, the environment and economics. Major changes will also be required in product development and marketing strategies.

As Thailand becomes increasingly dependent on, and exposed to, tourism as a means of economic survival, just as it is to technology as a means of communications and business, it will have to work much harder to prevent disruptions. Internal, regional and global peace will hold the absolute key to the industry’s, and by extension, the economy’s survival.

That will require a total revamp in the way the industry thinks, away from bean-counting and carbon-neutrality to much more deep-rooted strategies designed to prevent and pre-empt risks and threats.