View the world carefully.

The world currently faces war in both Europe and the Middle East. Due to a perceived weak United States, the possibility of war also exists in the Asian Pacific and the Korean Peninsula. Crime is a major concern in Africa and Latin America, and after the October 7 massacre it is clear that terrorism is and can become a major problem in the Middle East, Europe, and North America. Additionally human and sex trafficking are growing concerns. The United States’ open border with Mexico now means that human trafficking is overtaking drugs as the number one profit provider for the illegal cartels.

Be prepared for economic instability.

We are now seeing the stock market on a roller coaster and coupled with rising fuel costs. Tourism demand is often interlocked with perceptions and national moods and if the price of food and fuel rises then expect continued inflation and cutbacks on non-essential spending such as travel. Ennui and foreboding are danger signs for tourism because when the public becomes fearful eventually the public stops spending disposable income.

No one knows what will occur in Russia and the ongoing Ukraine-Russian war.

President Putin manages to impact the world of tourism. The Ukraine wars might turn into limited low-grade wars of attrition or can take a 90 degree turn and come closer to a full-scale war. There is also the potential of a coup d’état in Russia and were that to occur the person(s) who follow might be willing to compromise or they might be more hardline than Putin.

On the tourism front

Expect the public to trust the media less than it already does.

The media have gone from truthful reporting to political pieces of propaganda. Tourism publications that already have low levels of credibility will continue to lose credibility in the eyes of the public.

Nothing works if visitors are afraid and not secure.

The spread of terrorist groups throughout the world is a major threat to tourism. Tourism must learn to create not merely security and safety but “surety” – the interaction between the two. That means that locations without TOPPs (tourism policing) programs will suffer and eventually decline. Private security and public security will need to learn to interact and work well not only with each other but with the media and marketers. The old and outdated adage that security scares visitors is more and more being replaced with the adage that the lack of security provokes fear among visitors. Cybercrime will continue to be another major challenge the travel industry faces. Tourism cannot merely hobble from pandemics and health crisis to the next it must create a global plan to protect visitors in an ever-increasing interconnected world.

Tourism Safety and Security will continue to be top priorities.

Cybercrime will continue to be another major challenge the travel industry faces. Tourism cannot merely hobble from pandemics and health crisis to the next it must create an global plan to protect visitors in an ever increasing interconnected world.

Although unemployment is low in the US and Europe, these figures do not necessarily reflect a strong economy, but rather that millions of people have ceased looking for work.

In this world of false recoveries, low unemployment does not translate into the willingness on the part of the public to travel more. Ironically during a period when there are thousands of job openings both in the United States and Europe in the world of travel and tourism there are too many location where there is a dearth of skilled labor. Tourism needs people who are both inspired and well trained.

Despite the dearth of employees, we see low salaries, and recruitment and retention problems especially among front line personnel.

Many online and front-line workers receive low salaries, have low levels of job loyalty, and change jobs with high level of rapidity. This high turnover level makes training difficult and often each time a person leaves, the information is lost. To make matters even more challenging these are often the person with whom visitors come in contact. This pattern of high turnover, low wages and low levels of job loyalty tends to guarantee low job satisfaction and low levels of customer satisfaction. This situation has resulted in the lack of availability of skilled manpower by the travel and tourism industry, one of the largest if not the largest employment generators in the world. If tourism is to be a sustainable product then it needs to turn part-time jobs into careers without pricing itself out of the market. If the travel and tourism industry hopes to continue to grow it will need trained personnel, and a willing and enthusiastic workforce at every level from the managerial, to skilled workers to the semi-skilled worker.

The pursuit of lawsuits will increase.

Because the public has grown tired of unfulfilled promises and frustrated at the political situation, we may well see a still higher tendency to sue for damages or underperformance, especially in highly litigious societies such as the United States. Lawsuits will occur due to the industry’s lack of standards, willingness to take undue risks, issues of health and safety and crime. Tourism industry professionals would be well advised to seek both legal and tourism security guidance in order to minimize these problems. The best crisis management is good risk management.

The public will demand an end to the lack of amenities and the charging for basics.

In too many locations around the world there is a lack of simple amenities. From clean and potable water at hotels to well-maintained public rest rooms. In all too many locations finding simple public services is a constant challenge. Signage is often unintelligible to the foreign tourist, parking turns an outing into a nightmare, and as hard as it seems to believe there are all too many “good” quality hotels that charge for internet service. In many locations the hotel’s in-room phone service is outrageously expensive even for local calls. Airlines have created multiple fees that have earned them money at the expense of the public’s trust. Unless there is an end to the lack of amenities and/or the overcharging for basic services we will see a further erosion of customer loyalty within the hospitality industry.

The author, Dr. Peter E. Tarlow, is President and Co-Founder of the World Tourism Network and leads the Safer Tourism program.