Costs
If rapid tests are not an option for travelers, significant cost and convenience barriers are created. The OXERA-Edge Health report presented the following analysis:

The cost of PCR testing can completely alter the economics of travel. A family of four traveling from the UK to the Canary Islands will take a total of 16 tests at a total cost of around GBP1,600 or EUR1,850 – a premium of 160% on top of the average air fare.
A typical London-Frankfurt business trip sees a cost increase of 59% with the PCR test requirement.
The modelling shows that based on five routes studied (London-New York, London-Frankfurt, UK-Singapore, UK-Pakistan and Manchester-Canary Islands) the cost impact of PCR testing will reduce demand by an average of 65%. Replacing PCR with antigen testing would still have a cost impact on demand, but at 30%.

Financial barriers will dampen traveler sentiment which already displays some weakness. In a February poll of travelers, 58% said that they will travel less for leisure once the pandemic is contained. The same poll saw 62% of business travelers say they would be traveling less.

Convenience
In addition to dramatically shorter processing times for antigen testing when compared to PCR, the report also pointed to the scarcity of PCR tests. Current spare PCR testing capacity in the UK, for example, would cover only 25% of 2019 passenger levels. This could cause bottlenecks as and when passenger numbers rebound. Adding antigen testing as an acceptable option would help to alleviate this.

‘When international travel reopens testing is likely to remain part of the strategy for controlling COVID. The type of testing regime chosen will make the difference in how quickly the travel industry recovers. The choice of a rapid test would be a real boost to the global travel and international business community, and our research shows it can be as effective as other testing regimes and as effective as a ten-day quarantine,’ said Michele Granatstein, Partner at Oxera and Head of its Aviation Practice.

“We are already seeing rapid testing becoming commonplace in non-travel settings such as schools and workplaces. Extending its use to travel is a logical step. Science backs this up. In real world conditions, antigen testing is as effective as PCR testing in reducing the risk of cross-border transmission. Meanwhile the cost and bureaucracy of PCR tests adds huge burdens to families and businesses looking to travel. These are important considerations in preparing for a successful re-start,” said de Juniac.