Typhoon Goni will remain a powerful typhoon as it passes dangerously close to the northern Philippines then Taiwan through this weekend. Goni will eventually take aim at Japan and South Korea.
After battering the Mariana Islands with damaging winds and flooding rain over the weekend, the eye of Goni will track just north of the Philippines’ Luzon Island through Friday.
Goni will remain north of Luzon; however, the large size of the storm will cause strong winds and torrential rain to impact the northern and northwestern parts of the island as well as the Babuyan Islands to the north of the main island of Luzon.
A total of 150 to 300 mm (6 to 12 inches) of rain with locally higher amounts is expected across northern and northwestern Luzon, dramatically heightening concerns for flash flooding and mudslides.
Wind gusts of 95 to 130 kph (60 to 80 mph) will whip the northeastern tip of Luzon with more destructive winds targeting the Babuyan Islands. Also through Friday, Goni may approach super typhoon intensity.
After battering the northern Philippines, Goni will turn dramatically northward and pass just east of Taiwan this weekend. However, the dangers of flooding rain will not leave western parts of Luzon as tropical downpours will persist through much of the upcoming week, including in Manila.
While landfall is not expected in Taiwan, the dangerous typhoon will track less than 160 km (100 miles) from the coastline during its closest approach to the island nation.
Passing this close will result in wind gusts of 80 to 115 kph (50 to 70 mph) along the east coast and over the higher terrain. Wind gusts of 65 to 95 kph (40 to 60 mph) are expected in northern Taiwan, including Taipei.
Rainfall of 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) will be common from the western slopes of the mountains to the east coast and northern Taiwan. More than 300 mm (12 inches) threatens to trigger flooding and mudslides in the higher terrain, especially with the ground already saturated in the wake of once-Super Typhoon Soudelor.
Sunday into Monday, the worst of Goni’s impacts will shift into northern Taiwan and Japan’s Ryukyu Islands. While northern Taiwan will be spared the worst of the storm, the Ryukyu Islands will not be as lucky.
The current path of Goni puts the islands of Yaeyama and Miyako at greatest risk of enduring the most life-threatening impacts during the second half of the weekend.
Destructive winds in excess of 160 kph (100 mph) and rainfall topping 250 mm (10 inches) will target these islands.
How close Goni tracks after leaving these islands will determine if the dangerous conditions pass directly over or just west of the rest of the Ryukyu Islands. Even if the worst of Goni remains just offshore, residents of the Ryukyu Islands from Okinawa northward should still prepare for damaging winds of 95 to 130 kph (60 to 80 mph) and rainfall of 75 to 150 mm (3 to 6 inches).
Goni will continue its path of dangerous weather from Tuesday into Wednesday as strong winds and torrential rainfall spread into southwest Japan including Kyushu, Shikoku and southwest Honshu. Damaging winds over 80 kph (50 mph) are possible along with 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) of rainfall. Localized rainfall amounts over 300 mm (12 inches) are possible.
“Near where Goni makes landfall, winds of 115 to 130 kph (70 to 80 mph) are possible,” stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty. “Nagasaki is one place that should be on alert for a possible landfall.”
During the same time, heavy rainfall will spread over South Korea where flooding will also be a widespread concern, especially in the eastern half of the country where rainfall of 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) is possible.
Goni will weaken rapidly as it moves farther northwest into northeastern China during the second half of next week. While there can be some localized flooding, damaging winds will no longer be a concern.
