Prior to the announcement of Trump’s tariffs, the current US administration’s policies had already led to a shift in sentiment among international travelers, resulting in a negative perception of the US. According to Tourism Economics firm, the most significant decline in international travel to the US would occur in 2025, with ongoing effects expected to last throughout the rest of Trump’s second term.
Recent Data
The most recent data from the hospitality sector reveals that the new US administration has particularly adversely affected US hotel industry’s two major source markets: Canada and Mexico.
Data indicates that following the announcement of the US election results in November 2024, Canadians’ travel bookings to the US declined 16% compared to the same timeframe the previous year.
From November 2024 until Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, the demand from Canadian travelers showed slight fluctuations but remained consistently lower than the previous year’s figures.
Since January 2025, Canadian bookings to the US have experienced a significant monthly decline, culminating in a record low of -29% in March 2025, coinciding with the US/Canada trade war.
Inbound US Travel Demand from Canada
The data also indicates that interest among Mexican tourists in traveling to the United States reached its lowest point in November, with a decline of 33% compared to the same month the previous year, following the announcement of election results. This decline is not unexpected given Trump’s immigration policies, rhetoric, and his commitments to initiate mass deportations.
Invbound US Travel Demand from Mexico
In the subsequent months, demand experienced slight fluctuations but remained significantly low when compared to the same period last year.
Notably, in February 2025, there was an increase in bookings by Mexican travelers to the US, surpassing the figures from the previous year for the first time; however, the overall number of bookings in both years remained quite low.
In March, amid the ongoing trade conflict between the US and Mexico, demand fell by 19% compared to the previous year.
Inbound US Travel Demand from Mexico
