Tourism is a people-centric industry, driven by evolving needs, trends, and external global influences. To add to this, the complexity the global environment also plays a major role on the decision to travel. Hence tourism forecasting is by no means an easy task.
This article examines the importance of adopting research-driven, context-specific approaches to setting tourism targets for Sri Lanka, while taking into account the country’s carrying capacity and global tourism trends.
Introduction
Sri Lanka Tourism has certainly been on a rollercoaster ride for the past 3 to 4 decades. From the heady days of the 1980s, it suffered setbacks from the long-drawn-out civil war with the industry just managing to keep its head above the water during this time. Additional external shocks such as SARS, Bird flu, 9/11 and more recently Covid, dealt further blows to the growth of Sri Lanka tourism. Just when some steady growth was seen, the deadly Easter attacks occurred, where several tourists were targeted and lost their lives. Although many thought that this was the death knell of the industry, Sri Lanka did bounce back sooner than expected, only to face the Covid pandemic, which affected world tourism right across the spectrum. Despite these adversities, Sri Lanka’s tourism sector showed resilience, only to be hit again by the economic crisis.
Given this volatile environment that Sri Lanka has been exposed to, it is no surprise that proper forecasting of tourism growth remains a daunting task. Authorities have often set ambitious targets such as three million tourists by 2025 and even ten million by 2030 without sufficient analysis of the country’s capacity to sustain such numbers.
While these goals sound promising, one fundamental factor is often overlooked: the carrying capacity of Sri Lanka. Can an island of just 65,000 km² accommodate such large tourist volumes without significant environmental and cultural consequences? If sustainability is to be the foundation of Sri Lanka’s tourism strategy, realistic arrival targets must be established so we can safely accommodate the visitors without damage to the environment and our culture.
Too Many Tourists?
Over tourism refers to the phenomenon of excessive visitor numbers that create human, environmental, and social challenges. It is characterized by the high concentration of tourism activities and the negative impacts it has on destinations. Hence all forms of mass tourism eventually would lead to over tourism.
Many global destinations are now experiencing significant backlash from local communities due to uncontrolled tourism growth. Popular destinations such as Barcelona and Amsterdam have faced declining appeal due to overcrowding and its associated negative impacts. Terms like “anti-tourism,” “touristification,” and “tourismphobia” have emerged in response to these challenges.
To avoid similar pitfalls, there needs to be proper planning. Firstly, relevant authorities must determine the optimum carrying capacity the destination can accommodate. Subsequently the necessary infrastructure and management strategies must be developed to properly handle these tourist numbers to sustain the carrying capacities.
Understanding Carrying Capacity
Tourism Carrying Capacity (TCC) is defined by the World Tourism Organization as “The maximum number of people that may visit a tourist destination at the same time, without causing destruction of the physical, economic, socio-cultural environment and an unacceptable decrease in the quality of visitors’ satisfaction”. It should encompass environmental, social, physical and economic aspects of the destination.
Given all these impacts, estimation of TCC is a very complex task. The estimation of the TCC even for a specific tourism attraction is complicated, and hence estimating the TCC for the entire country is so much more complex and challenging.
Proposed method of estimating ideal tourist arrivals
While we do not claim to be experts in this area by any means, but are prospering a simple rudimentary method to arrive at some benchmarks.
The study proposes a comparative analysis of global tourist destinations to establish benchmarks for sustainable tourism. It firstly examines tourist footfall (arrivals per km² of land area) in various countries. It will then assess the impact of tourism on these countries as to what extent tourism has affected them. This information will be derived through social media feedback, academic studies, and news reports. Conclusions will then be drawn as to what would be the threshold carrying capacity in relation to the land mass of a country.
Tourist footfall per unit area of the country
A list of mature tourism destinations has been selected for the study, and their total annual tourism arrivals for 2018 (the best year on record for arrivals to Sri Lanka) are compared to their respective land area.
The current available feedback on the status of tourism in each of these countries is then recorded from various social media posts, news reports and academic writings. Based on the current status as seen from these sources, the countries which are facing serious over tourism problems have been highlighted in red. On the other hand, those countries that are not having any serious problems (under tourism) have been identified and highlighted in blue. Countries with emerging issues are marked in green.
Country specific analysis of study
Costa Rica
Land Area: 51,100 km² | Footfall: 65 tourists/km²
Costa Rica is considered a leader in sustainable tourism but is now facing over-tourism challenges. Efforts to disperse tourists across the country are underway.
Maldives
Land Area: 300 km² | Footfall: 5,676 tourists/km²
Maldives tourism development is unique because it is widely spread over some 200 islands with their regulation of ‘one island one resort’ concept limiting over tourism. (164 resort islands from a total of 1,200 islands) However, bottlenecks at Male’s airport indicate potential future challenges. It is currently on the brink of facing over tourism issues with various schemes being undertaken to the issue.
France and Spain
France – Land Area : 551685 km² | Footfall: 162 tourists/km²
Spain – Land Area : 506,030 km² | Footfall: 164 tourists/km²
Both countries have the largest land mass in the sample set studied but also are very popular tourism destinations with high tourist arrival numbers. They are facing severe over-tourism issues, with local communities voicing opposition. Governments have introduced measures such as tourist taxes and visitor limits.
Singapore
Land Area: 734 km² | Footfall: 25,204 tourists/km²
Despite its very high footfall, Singapore, being a very small country has still managed to have such a large number of tourists without major issues. even though the area of the country is very small. It effectively manages tourism through excellent infrastructure development and planning. However, future challenges may arise.
Netherlands
Land Area: 41,145 km² | Footfall: 149 tourists/km²