Between the years 2022 to 2031, the US dollar value of airplane production will be a staggering $2.94 trillion. How many jets is that? Airbus and Boeing will dominate that market accounting for 96.7% of total production.
It is estimated that yearly unit production in aviation will go up from 1,156 in 2022 to 2,111 in 2029. After that, however, because of an expected cyclical downturn, production will drop to 2,037 jet aircraft and then inch back up to 2,051 the following year in 2031.
Right, so to answer the question… between Airbus and Boeing, they will produce 18,066 large jet aircraft. That’s the nearly 97% of production, just 613 shy of the grand total of 18,679 during that decade.
Who will build more: Airbus or Boeing?
Airbus is forecast to build 9,774 large commercial airliners during the forecast period, while Boeing is forecast to build 8,292. Airbus is projected to lead the market in narrowbody production, while Boeing is forecast to lead the market in widebody production.
Demand for large commercial airliners picked up substantially in 2021.
Combined, Airbus and Boeing recorded 1,666 gross orders for large commercial airliners in 2021, almost triple the 561 gross orders registered by the two companies in 2020. Order cancellations did continue at a high (though reduced) rate into 2021, suppressing net order totals.
“The large commercial airliner market remains essentially an Airbus/Boeing duopoly,” said Forecast International Senior Aerospace Analyst Raymond Jaworowski. “Nevertheless, the two giant manufacturers do face some challengers, particularly in the narrowbody segment. New narrowbodies entering the market include the COMAC C919 from China and the Irkut MC-21 from Russia.
“Boeing has made considerable progress in getting its 737 MAX program back on track. The company resumed customer deliveries of MAXs in December 2020.
Boeing is well-positioned in the widebody market, where its twin-engine 777 and 787 models have proven to be popular items. The 787 program did suffer a production hiccup in 2021, causing a temporary suspension of deliveries, but this should prove to be only a short-term obstacle.
What’s new in the pipeline
As for the 777, Boeing is currently managing a transition from the Classic versions to the new 777X series, a move that has become somewhat complicated in the midst of a difficult widebody market. Production of the four-engine 747-8 is scheduled to end in 2022.
Airbus has also been in the process of refashioning its product line. In the narrowbody segment, the re-engined A320neo variants have largely succeeded the original members of the A320 family in production. The A321LR and A321XLR versions of the A321neo are mounting at least a partial foray into the Boeing 757 replacement market. Acquisition of the CSeries from Bombardier has provided Airbus with a product, re-named the A220, positioned at the lower end of the narrowbody market.
In the widebody arena, Airbus is replacing the original A330 with the re-engined A330neo. The production ramp-up of the A350 was interrupted by the pandemic but is slated to resume in 2023. A freighter version of the A350 is under development. Production of the 500+ passenger A380 ended in 2021.