Global tourism has recovered to 96% of pre-pandemic levels

The most recent World Tourism Barometer published by UN Tourism indicates that approximately 790 million tourists engaged in international travel during the initial seven months of 2024. This figure represents an increase of about 11% compared to 2023 and is only 4% lower than the numbers recorded in 2019. The data reflects a robust beginning to the year, although the second quarter exhibited a more tempered performance. These results align with UN Tourism’s forecast of a complete recovery in international arrivals for 2024, despite the persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

According to UN Tourism Secretary-General, international tourism is poised to achieve a full recovery from the most significant crisis the sector has ever faced. This ongoing resurgence occurs in the face of various economic and geopolitical obstacles, underscoring the strong demand for international travel and the effectiveness of enhancing air connectivity and relaxing visa regulations. Furthermore, this recovery underscores the increasing necessity for strategic tourism planning and management to address its impacts on communities, ensuring that the substantial socio-economic advantages are accompanied by inclusive and sustainable policies.

The Middle East continues to spearhead the recovery efforts.

The enhancement of air connectivity and the facilitation of visa processes have significantly contributed to the resurgence of international travel, as evidenced by data indicating robust performance across all global regions this year.

• In relative terms, the Middle East has emerged as the fastest-growing region, with international arrivals surpassing 2019 figures by 26% during the initial seven months of 2024.

• Africa experienced a 7% increase in tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019.

• Europe and the Americas have nearly returned to their pre-pandemic levels, achieving 99% and 97% of their previous arrivals, respectively, over these seven months.

• Asia and the Pacific have seen 82% of their pre-pandemic tourist numbers, reflecting an 18% decline compared to 2019, with figures reaching 85% in June and 86% in July.

In the first half of 2024, 67 out of 120 global destinations reported a return to 2019 arrival figures, according to countries that provide monthly or quarterly statistics. Notable performers during January to July 2024 included Qatar, which saw a remarkable increase of 147% compared to 2019, with arrivals more than doubling. Other strong performers were Albania (+93%), El Salvador (+81%), Saudi Arabia (+73%), the Republic of Moldova (+50% through June), and Tanzania (+49% through June).

The data on receipts and expenditures indicates even more robust outcomes.

In terms of international tourism receipts, 47 out of 63 countries with accessible data achieved a recovery to pre-pandemic levels during the first half of 2024, with many experiencing significant double-digit growth relative to 2019 (in local currencies and current prices). Notable performers through June or July 2024 included Albania (+128%) and Serbia (+126%), where receipts more than doubled compared to the same timeframe in 2019. Other strong performers were Tajikistan (+85%), Pakistan (+76%), Montenegro (+70%), North Macedonia (+60%), and Portugal (+57%). Additionally, Türkiye (+55%) and Colombia (+54%) reported impressive results. It is particularly noteworthy that, based on first-quarter data, Saudi Arabia (+207%) and El Salvador (+168%) experienced remarkable growth compared to Q1 2019.

The data concerning international tourism expenditure highlights a robust demand for outbound travel from January to July 2024, particularly from major source markets such as the United States (+32%), Germany (+38%), and the United Kingdom (+40% through March), in comparison to the same period in 2019. Significant outbound spending was also recorded from Australia (+34%), Canada (+28%), and Italy (+26%), all through June 2024. Limited data from India indicates a remarkable increase in outbound spending, with an 86% rise in Q1 2024 compared to Q1 2019.

Updated figures for 2023 indicate that export revenues from international tourism have reached USD 1.8 trillion, which includes both receipts and passenger transport. This figure is nearly equivalent to the levels observed prior to the pandemic, reflecting a decline of only 1% in real terms compared to 2019. Additionally, the direct contribution of tourism to GDP has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, amounting to an estimated USD 3.4 trillion, which represents 3% of the global GDP. In 2019, tourism accounted for a direct contribution of 4% to global GDP.

A positive outlook for the conclusion of 2024 is anticipated, despite ongoing challenges.

The UN Tourism Confidence Index indicates optimistic expectations for the latter part of the year, registering 120 points for the period of September to December 2024. This figure is lower than the 130 points projected for the May to August period, on a scale ranging from 0 to 200, where 100 signifies an equal expected performance. Approximately 47% of tourism professionals surveyed anticipate improved sector performance in the final four months of 2024, while 41% expect performance to remain stable, and 11% foresee a decline. This trend suggests a gradual return to normalcy in tourism performance following a robust year in 2023.

Experts have identified inflation in the travel and tourism industry, particularly elevated costs for transportation and lodging, as the primary challenge confronting the sector at present. Additionally, they highlighted the impact of the global economic climate, workforce shortages, and severe weather occurrences.