Boeing anticipates sustained long-term growth in the air cargo sector, which has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. The company projects that air cargo traffic will rise by an average of 4% annually until 2043. These forecasts are detailed in Boeing‘s 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF), a biennial report that provides an overview and long-term perspective on the air cargo industry.
Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of Commercial Marketing, stated that air cargo, recognized as the fastest and most dependable method for transporting goods, has experienced consistent growth that has reinstated the industry to its long-term trajectory. He emphasized that numerous factors will contribute to the ongoing demand for freighters in the next two decades, such as the expansion of emerging markets and the global increase in manufacturing and e-commerce.
The global air cargo fleet is forecast to rise to 3,900 airplanes by 2043, a two-thirds increase from 2,340 freighters in 2023.
Driven by demand in high-growth Asian markets, the large widebody freighter fleet will nearly double. Nearly half of production and conversion deliveries will replace retiring freighters with more capable and fuel-efficient models — due to recent market needs, many older jets remain in service.
Regional movers:
East and South Asian markets will see the highest traffic growth per year, driven by expanding economies and consumer demand.
With the Asia-Pacific fleet expected to nearly triple, carriers in that region will require the most deliveries (980), followed closely by North America (955). These two regions will account for more than two-thirds of global deliveries.
India’s domestic air cargo market will nearly quadruple as express and e-commerce networks expand.
Express carriers forecast:
Express carriers will serve one quarter of the air cargo market (up from current 18%).
Express carriers are poised to grow faster than the industry average due to an increasing role in e-commerce distribution and the expansion of express networks in emerging markets.
