Updated forecasts for 39 Asia Pacific destinations show a very strong increase in aggregate international visitor arrivals (IVAs) under each of three scenarios in 2023, with robust annual growth continuing to the end of 2025.
A suite of reports sponsored by Visa with data and insights from Euromonitor International, builds on the current forecasts by delving deeper into the changing dynamics of travel and tourism into and across the Asia Pacific region at the single destination level facilitating the development of appropriate strategies over the next three years.
Predicted international arrival numbers in 2023 range from 705 million under the mild scenario to 516 million under the medium scenario, and almost 390 million under the severe scenario, equating to visitor numbers in 2023 that exceed that of pre-pandemic 2019 by 3.3% under the mild scenario, but still nearly 25% short of it under the medium scenario, and some 43% behind it under the severe scenario.
By the end of 2024, the 2019 benchmark level of IVAs will be exceeded even further under the mild scenario and by 6.7% under the medium scenario, with both positions increasing in strength to 2025. Under the severe scenario, however, IVAs in 2025 are still predicted to fall short of the 2019 level by some 10%.
China is Lagging
One source market of particular interest of course, is mainland China and these most recent forecasts indicate that very strong annual growth rates are expected in 2023 under each of the three scenarios, but not passing the 2019 volumes until 2024 under the mild and medium scenarios.
Despite very strong annual increases in arrivals from mainland China to Asia Pacific destinations, under the severe scenario, that number is still expected to lag the 2019 peak by around six percent by the end of 2025.
This series of the “Asia Pacific Destination Forecasts 2023-2025” released by PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association) covers 39 destinations, with a focus on source markets and air capacity changes in each case.