Embraer‘s newly published 2020 Commercial Market Outlook examines passenger demand for air travel and new aircraft deliveries over the next 10 years with special emphasis on Embraer’s product segment – aircraft up to 150 seats. The report identifies emerging trends that will influence growth, factors shaping future airline fleets, and the regions of the world that will lead demand in the commercial sector.
The global pandemic is causing fundamental changes that are reshaping air travel patterns and demand for new aircraft. There are four main drivers:
- Fleet Rightsizing – a shift to smaller-capacity, more versatile aircraft to match weaker demand.
- Regionalization – companies seeking to protect their supply chains from external shocks will bring businesses closer, generating new traffic flows.
- Passenger Behavior – preference for shorter-haul flights and decentralization of offices from large urban centers will require more diverse air networks.
- Environment – renewed focus on more efficient, greener aircraft types.
“The short-term impact of the global pandemic has long-term implications for new aircraft demand,” said Arjan Meijer, President and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation. “Our forecast reflects some of the trends we’re already seeing – the early retirement of older and less efficient aircraft, a preference for more profitable smaller airplanes to match weaker demand, and the growing importance of domestic and regional airline networks in the restoration of air service. Aircraft with up to 150 seats will be instrumental in how quickly our industry recovers.”
- Global passenger traffic (measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres – RPKs) will return to 2019 levels by 2024, yet remain 19% below Embraer’s previous forecast through the decade, to 2029.
- RPKs in Asia Pacific will grow the fastest (3.4% annually).
- 4,420 new jets up to 150 seats will be delivered through 2029.
- 75% of deliveries will replace ageing aircraft, 25% representing market growth.
- The majority will be to airlines in North America (1,520 units) and Asia Pacific (1,220).
- 1,080 new turboprops will be delivered through 2029.
- The majority will be to airlines in China/Asia Pacific (490 units) and Europe (190).