OAG releases 10-year Commercial Aircraft Fleets and Utilization Forecast

In 2009, the average aircraft utilization for the world’s commercial fleet is expected to drop by 4 percent compared to 2008, according to the latest Commercial Aircraft Fleets and Utilization Forecast from OAG. www.oagaviation.com

This is revealed in OAG’s most recent study of the global MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) service demand projection for the next decade, developed in partnership with AeroStrategy. The utilization forecast, which drives MRO demand, takes into consideration the significant global downsizing in schedules frequency and capacity that have been filed with OAG in the past six months. Global aircraft utilization typically grows at an average of 3.4 percent per year.

John Weber, managing director, OAG Aviation, said: “Scheduled airline frequency and capacity cutbacks made over the past six months will have a significant impact on planned aircraft utilization, with a corresponding short-term downturn in demand for MRO services. We are projecting a worldwide drop of -4 percent in average aircraft utilization in 2009 compared to 2008, with only modest recovery in 2010. Normal levels of aircraft utilization growth are not expected to return until 2011.”

The regions worst affected this year by a reduction in aircraft utilization will be North America (-7 percent) and western Europe (-5 percent). Least affected will be China, Eastern Europe, Africa, India, and Latin America. North American and European operators accounted for 61 percent of global aircraft utilization in 2008. The forecast trend indicates a gradual shift of this market dominance to other regions. By 2018, Asia is projected to increase its share of the world’s global aircraft utilization by 2.8 percent to 25.4 percent, driving up demand for MRO services in that region.

Over the next 10 years, OAG forecasts that aircraft retirements will peak in 2016 – 1017 at double the average retirement rates of 2009 – 2013. The global installed base of active aircraft will grow 38 percent by 2018 compared with 2008.

OAG’s Commercial Aircraft Fleet and Utilization Forecast is a 47-page, in-depth report tracking 10-year future trends. It is one of six reports produced by OAG on the Commercial Aviation MRO (“CAMRO”) sector covering airframe, engine, components, modifications, and line/field maintenance.

To view or download a copy of the report’s executive summary and illustrative graphs, please visit http://www.oagaviation.com/aviation-reports/reports-camro.htm .