Drenching downpours, locally gusty thunderstorms and squalls at sea will continue in and around Florida through much of the week.
While Florida is typically very active in terms of tropical downpours and thunderstorms during the middle of the summer, this pattern will bring stronger, more drenching and more frequent storms than average.
The heavy and reoccurring storms will raise the risk of flooding and can make for locally dangerous conditions in coastal and offshore waters.
During Sunday evening, July 26, more than 300 homes had to be evacuated by rising waters along the Anclote River, near Trinity, Florida.
The downpours will be a hindrance for the scores of people heading to amusement parks or spending a day on the beach. The sudden storms will pose a lightning strike risk and can quickly make coastal waters and surf very rough for a brief period.
Most of the storms will tend to focus along the Florida west coast and central counties of the peninsula. However, some storms will also affect areas in the South, along the Atlantic coast and over the northernmost counties of the state.
Many of the storms have been traveling from the southwest to the northeast, rather than the traditional Atlantic coast to interior locations.
According to AccuWeather Hurricane and Southeast Expert Dan Kottlowski, “This movement is likely to continue into midweek and will allow some storms to reach the Atlantic beaches during the late afternoon and evening.”
During the 48 hours ending at 10:00 a.m. EDT Monday, July 27, 2015, nearly 7 inches of rain fell on Fort Myers with nearly 3 inches falling on Marco Island. A general 1-2 inches of rain has fallen over this past weekend in much of the Florida Peninsula with locally higher amounts.
Additional heavy rainfall is forecast this week over much of the state. During the pattern, some communities may end up with more than a foot of rain with many locations received 3-6 inches for the entire event.
A slow-moving storm system and stalled front responsible for the rainfall and storms will linger nearby this week.
It will not be until the first weekend in August before the pattern begins to shift.
“Frequent storms may then migrate farther to the northwest, over the Florida Panhandle into Georgia, Alabama and perhaps the Carolinas,” Kottlowski said.
There continues to be a chance of tropical development along the frontal zone, but this chance is low and may soon diminish.
“Since the area of disturbed weather is likely to move over the United States mainland by the weekend, the small chance of tropical development will get even smaller,” Kottlowski said. “Dry air and disruptive winds aloft will continue to greatly reduce the chance of development elsewhere in the Atlantic basin through the first half of August.”
All areas, especially those along the Southeast U.S. coast, will continue to be monitored closely.